Housing Market Assessment (HMA) Report MTL & Canada

 

20151029-hma

The Housing Market Assessment publication for Canada evaluates the extent to which there is evidence of problematic housing market conditions in selected Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs). Results are updated on a quarterly basis.

Download PDF; Canadas -Montreal Market Evaluation 2015

Highlights „

This quarterly release of the Housing Market Assessment (HMA) provides updated results
that evaluate the extent to which there is evidence of problematic housing market conditions in 15 Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs).
„ „ The HMA analytical framework considers four factors to assess the evidence of problematic housing market
conditions: overheating; acceleration in the growth of house prices; overvaluation; and, overbuilding. The
appendix of the first release, published in November 2014 in a special edition of Housing Now, contains a
detailed description of the framework. A brief summary of it is presented on page 3 of this report.
„ „

The analytical framework detects strong evidence of problematic conditions in Toronto, Winnipeg, Saskatoon,
and Regina.

„ „ The overall level of evidence of problematic conditions detected by our framework for Toronto remains strong
due to the detection of price acceleration and overvaluation.

„ „ Since the previous assessment, the overall level of evidence of problematic conditions detected by our
framework has moved from moderate to strong for Saskatoon due to the detection of overvaluation and
overbuilding.

„ „ In Winnipeg and Regina, there remains strong evidence of problematic conditions, reflecting detection of
overvaluation and overbuilding.

„ „ The analytical framework detects moderate evidence of price acceleration conditions in Montréal, Ottawa and
Québec.

„ „ Nationally, there remains moderate evidence of overvaluation, reflective of a variety of price conditions
across the country with some CMAs showing more signs of overvaluation than others. Notably, evidence of
overvaluation is now detected in Toronto, Vancouver, Montréal, Edmonton, and Saskatoon. CMHC’s framework
also detects evidence of other problematic conditions such as overheating, acceleration in house prices, and
overbuilding of varying degrees across CMAs.

Montréal: Moderate evidence…

The strong evidence of overvaluation reflects slower growth in first time home buyer demand combined with relatively modest growth in personal Housing Market Assessment- Canada – Date Released – Fourth Quarter 2015 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation disposable income. Condominium units completed and unsold have risen significantly over the past two years. Inventory management is necessary to make sure that the currently elevated number of condominium units under construction does not remain unsold upon completion.

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